If Barnier goes his budget goes toopublished at 15:48 Greenwich Mean Time
Hugh Schofield
Paris Correspondent
Hidden behind France’s political crisis is the small matter of
the 2025 budget. In a nutshell, if Michel Barnier is voted out, there won’t be
one.
Remember that when the prime minister pushed the social security
budget through the Assembly on Monday, it was only on the condition that there
be a vote of no confidence today.
Basically the government was betting all on the legislation,
with itself as collateral. If Barnier goes, the budget goes too.
There are various implications. First some kind of emergency law
will have to be passed to allow bills to be paid and loans raised on the money
markets after 1 January.
That will be the task of whatever caretaker government keeps the
show running after Barnier’s fall (it could even be Barnier himself).

But one side-effect could be to tip millions of people into paying more tax than they should be.
That is because any temporary 2025 budget will rest on the 2024 numbers. There won’t have been a recalibration to account for inflation.
As a result there will be many households – earning an extra two percent because of inflation – who find themselves pushed into a higher tax band. Others will find themselves paying income tax for the first time.
One of many unintended consequences of the chaos.