Rebels’ advance swift and astonishingpublished at 11:59 Greenwich Mean Time
Hugo Bachega
Middle East correspondent, on the Turkish-Syrian border
Last week, they seized Aleppo, Syria’s
second-largest city. Yesterday, Hama, home to one million people.
Now, they are on their way to Homs, a
strategically important city.
The rebels’ advance has been swift and
astonishing, redrawing lines in the 13-year-old civil war.
In some places, they have encountered no
resistance from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.
Homs is a key target, as it connects the
capital Damascus to the country’s north and the coasts, Assad’s heartland.
Even if the rebels seize it, they will
remain relatively distant from the capital – but this will certainly alarm the
president and his allies even more – while boosting the fighters’ confidence
that they can topple him.
Image source, Getty ImagesThis campaign, led by Islamist rebels
from a group known as HTS, is the biggest challenge to Assad’s rule since the
peak of the war, which started with the regime’s brutal repression of
anti-government protests in 2011.
Assad changed the tide helped by
Russia’s formidable air power and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese
militia.
It is no coincidence that this offensive
happens as those allies are distracted with their own affairs. Russia is
engaged in its war with Ukraine, while Hezbollah has been severely weakened
after its conflict with Israel.
The Syrian military, meanwhile, is
demoralised, underpaid, and exhausted after years of fighting.
As the rebels advance, Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah have reiterated their support for Assad.
With
or without their help it is not clear how – or if – Assad will react to try to
stop an offensive that threatens his 24-year-long regime